A big inflation report is on the way wedding. Here’s what to expect

With Concerns Running High that President Donald Trump’s Tariff Policies will aggravate inflation, a report WednsDay Could Deliver Some Mildly Encouraging News.

The consumer price index for February is forecast to show an increase of 0.3% for a broad array of goods and services across the largest economy in the world. That projection holds both for the all-soms measure and the core index that excludes Volatile Food and Energy Pries.

On an annual basis, that would put headline inflation at 2.9% and the core reading at 3.2%, both 0.1 percented points point lower than in January.

The good news is that rates represent a constation of a steady but quite slow drawdown in the inflation rate over the past year. The bad news is that both also also are still well Above the federal reserve’s 2% goal, likely keeping the Central Bank on Hold Again when it meets next week.

“We expect broad-based decision, with weighter core goods and services,” Morgan Stanley Economist Diego anzoategui said in a note. “Why Still Elevated? For Three Reasons: (1) We expect used car prices Rise beCause of Past Wildfires, (2) According to our analysis, certain goes and services show residual service February, and (3) We Think Supply Constraints Keep Airfares Infection Elevated in February. “

The big question now is where things head from here.

Trump’s tariff moves Have stirred market works of both Rising Inflation and Slower Economic GrowthWith Fed Officials Historically more Attured to the Inflation Side of the Dual Mandate for Price Stability and Full Employment, A PROLONGED Period of High Pries Could Put the Fed On the Fedes for Longer.

However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome power and his colleagues have indicated that in their view, tariffs historically have been one-of-off price increases and not fundamental inflation drivers. If that’s also the case this time, policymakers might look through any price blogs from trade policy and continue to lower rates, as markets are projecting this year.

Goldman Sachs Economists Expect the Fed to Stay on Hold Until Policy Comes Into Clearer View, then Likely Lakele Lower the Central Bank’s Benchmark lending rate by a half percent later this year.

“We see further disinflation in the pipeline from rebalancing in the auto, Housing Rental, and Labor Markets, Thought We Expect Offsets from Catch-UP Infection in Healthcare and A Boost from an escalation in Tarifif Policy,” The firm said in a note.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the cpi report at 8:30 am et.