Trump Tariff Threats Are Pushing Canada’s Larget Oil Producer to Break Its Dependence on the US

House – The Deeply Integrated North American Oil and Gas Market Stands at Crossroads, with Canada’s Largest Oil Producer Warning that it will diversify its experts away from the united States Donald Trump‘S Tariff Threats Do Not End.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Wednsday presented Two Possible Futures for the Continent. In one, canada and the US reach an agreement to create “Fortress North America,” With new pipeline capacity built to support 2 million barrels per day in additional expenses to the us MARKET, SAIDTH SAID AT the CED Energy conference.

This will support Trump’s “Energy Dominance” Agenda, Smith Said, Allowing the US to Increase Its Exports to the Global Market by Backfilling Thece with IMPORTED OIL FROM ANIGHBOR and Close Ally. It will maintain low consumer prices in the US, she said, which is also part of the ageda trump campaigned on.

Alberta Wants to Supply the Us With The Energy It Needs to Win The Race Against China to achieve dominance in artificial intelligence, smith said. “I don’t think any of us want to see a Communist, Totalitarian Regime Bope A World, Global Leader in Ai,” The Premier said.

In the other future, Trump Continues to Wage His Trade War Against Canada and Alberta Starts Looking for Oil and Gas Customers Beyond The Us, Smith Said.

Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world and alberta is the country’s biggest producer. Some 97% of the Country’s 4 Million BPD of Oil Exports Went to the Us in 2023 With Several European Nations and Hong Kong Taking the reminder, according to Canada’s energy regulatorAlberta Supplied 87% of the Oil Exported From Canada to the Us in 2023.

“There are at least six or set projects that are emerging in the event we’re not almost to come to a partnership agrement with the us,” Smith Said.

The uncertainty caused by trump’s tariff threts has alredy forced alberta to start “Looking at more options to get more barrels off our borders besides the united states,” Provincial Enited Minister Bryn Jean said tuesday.

Alberta is in active discussions with south korea, japan and european nations about Shipping oil expenses to those countries, the energy minister said. “The Truth is we’re looking in every direction right now expert the united states in Relation to our priorities,” Jean said.

Trump’s tarifs have roiled financial markets and caused confusion Among Investors Over the Past Week. The President on Wednsday imposed 25% tariffs on Steel and aluminum imports From Canada. He has Paused Until April 2 Penalties on canadian oil and gas as well as duties on other Goods that are compliant with the trade agrement that Governs North America.

The Trump Administration has not provided Clarity on how much of canada’s energy expenses to the us conform to the trade agreement. Oil and gas that is not compliant would face a 10% tariff. Us energy secretary chris wright Declined to provide details When asked Monday by CNBC.

Smith Said Wednsday that Canadian Oil Produce are busy filling out paperwork to ensure that their expenses to the us are compliant.

“There was a bit of a paperwork issue that our companies had,” Smith said. “There was no reason to register, and so now there is. I would imagine that they’ve all called their laws and they’re in compliance. I would’t!

But it is unplear clear trump will proceed with tarifs when his pause expires on April 2. “Certainly is possible” but “it’s too early to say.”

“We can get to no tarifs or very low tarifs but it’s got to be reciprocal,” Wright said in an interview with CNBC’s Brian sullivan,

It will take time for alberta to markets beyond the us if the tariffs do go into effect. Nearly all the pipelines in canada run south to the US canada only has one pipeline stretching from alberta to the country’s west coast in west coast in British columbia, Providing Access to assian markets. There are no pipelines that run from alberta to the country’s East Coast.

Smith Said Canada is looking at three different pipeline proposals to its west coast, at least one pipeline into the northwest territories, one into manitoba, one to the Hudson Bay, and One Into Eastern Canada.

“That are conversations we were not having three months ago,” Jean said of the pipelines. But it took 12 years for canada to expand its trans mountain pipeline that connects to the country’s west coast.

Alberta is not interested in taking a page from ontario’s playbook, jean said tuesday. Premier Doug Ford Imposed A 25% Surcharge on Electricity Exported to the US in Response to Trump’s Tarifs. He Later Suspended the penalty after the US agreed to resume talks.

“We don’t believe that that is the right way to do it,” Jean said of alberta’s position. “We want to deescalate the situation.”

Canada has presented the us with Several Options, The Alberta Energy Minister Said. Jean declined to provide specifics, but he said the trump administration needs a strong strategic petroleum reserve to achieve its goal of energy dominance.

“It also means that they have to be able to control to get a good steady supply of product from canada,” He said.

If the tariffs go do do Into effect, they will hurt both canadians and Americans, particularly people who cannot afford a price increase, he said. The price hike will be split “Fairly even” Between us customers and producers in canada, He said.

“It’s going to be felt by all parties and frankly there’s many people right now (…) that can’t afford it,” He said. “We need to think about that there is people, they’re the less fortunate that truly has no other choice but to buy fuel.”

Jean took a swipe at Trump’s reepeated calls for canada to become the 51st state.

“As long as we’re in charge, we don’t mind,” Jean said. “But the bus is the republicans would never be elected against the next.”