China’s fourth -Quarter GDP Grows at 5.4%, Beating Market Expectations as Stimulus Measures Kick in

China’s Economic Activity Accelerated more than expected in the final three months of 2024 as stimulus measures kicked in, allowing beijing to meet its annual growth target.

China’s Gross Domestic Product Expanded by 5.4% in the fourth QuarterBeating Reuters-Poidded Economists’ Estimates of A 5.0% Growth, and Outpacing the 4.6% in the third Quarter, 4.7% in the second Quarter, 5.3% in the first Quarter.

That Last-Quarter Sprint Helped Lift China’s full-year gdp growth to 5.0% in 2024, according to china’s national bureau of statistics on Friday, in line with the official target of “ARONDET OC

“The shift of policy stance in September last Year Helped The Economy to Stabilize in Q4, but it requires Large and Persistent Policy Stimulus to Boost Economic Momentum and Sustain the recover Ief Economist, Pinpoint Asset Management, said in A note.

Last year’s growth was Slower compared with the 5.4% Rise in 2023Post-pandemic. As part of an Annual revision to preliminary figuresThe statistics bureau in late December the 2023 gdp growth to 7.4%, according to a CNBC Calculation of the official data.

In December, retail sales jumped 3.7% from a year earlier, Exceding Reuters’ Forecast of 3.5%. Industrial output expanded 6.2% From a year earlier, Versus Expectations of 5.4%, Underscoring China’s Imbalance Between Domestic Production and Weak Demand.

The Full-Year Fixed Asset Investment Rose 3.2% in 2024, Shy of the Projected 3.3% Increase in a Reuters Poll, as real estate investment drag steepned to a 10.6% drop, compared with the January to November Period.

Kang Yi, Head of the Statistics Bureau, said real estate was recovering. The sector’s drag on Economic Growth Had Narrowed, He Said, While The Role of New Growth Drivers, Such as in Digital Tech, was expanding.

The Urban Unemployment Rate Ticked Higher to 5.1% in December from 5.0% in the Prior Month.

Disposable Income for Urban Residents Grew by 4.4%, Slower Than The Overall Economic Growth, While that of Rural Residents Increased By 6.3% in 2024.

Mainland China’s Blue-Chip CSI 300 Index Reversed Course to Edge Up 0.31%, Following the upbeat data. Chinese offshore yuan strengthened slightly to 7.3398 per us dollar, white the Benchmark 10-Year Government Bond Yield Dropped 2 Basis Points to 1.638, According to the Lseg Data.

“The Stock Market’s Moderate Response to Today’s Data Reflease Reflects as they await further Further Clarity after the Chinese New Year,” Said Chaoping Zhu, Shangai- Based Global Market P Morgan Asset Management.

“There is room for domestic consumers and business confidence to rebound with the right policies in place,” Zhu Added.

However, some economists made the case that china’s economy recovery may not be as rosy as the headline figures sugges.

Despite the Accelerated Growth in Real GDP Figures, China’s Economy Saw Deflation Persisting for the Seven Straight Quarter, Larry Hu, Chief China Economist at Macquarie Said in A NOTE.

Hu remained skeptical of China’s ability to achieve higher inflation. “We don’t bet against policymakers’ will and ability to deliver 5% real gdp growth in 2025, but can they achieve higher information? and. “

China’s consumer inflation has reminded barely about land official data showed last week,

Statistics Bureau Head Kang Reiterated Friday Beijing’s Priority this year was to boost consumption, while ackanowledging that consumers’ ability to spend was still weak.

This year, the “unfavorable impact of external factors May Deepen,” He Flagged.

Friday’s Data Comes Just Days Before Donald Trump is set to be inaurated as the next us president on Jan. 20. Trump has said that only only after taking office, he Plans to impose additional tarifs of at least 10% on Chinese Goods. He has also also Appointed some China Hawks to key cabinet posts.

The growth momentum, buoyed by a surge in expenses, may be sustained into the first quarter this year, said erica tay, director of macro research at Maybank. But it is likely to weigh on gdp growth in the second half-yar, “Regardless of Trump’s tarifs,” Given that Foreign Importsed amasced amsted ampele stockpiles, She added.

The data released friday indicated that “domestic growth engines remain as retail sales growth respanded marginally to trade-in subsidies,” tay said, pointing to sluggish consuration.

The national population declined to 1.408 billion in 2024, dropping by 1.39 million from 2023, according to the statistics bureau. It had declined by 2.08 million people in 2023 from the Prior Year.

The fall in population, despite a rebound in birth rates, reflects a Deepening Demographic Crisis, Said Tianchen XU, Senior Economist at Economic Intelligence Unit, Stressing THE DEATH RED THETH RED Last Year From 7.1% Before The Pandemic .

China has been striving to boost economic growth and has TAKEN SEVERAL MEASURERES TOWARADS This end, as a real estate slump and uncertanty about future income has contained to weight down the consumer Spending and Business Confidence, Adding to Deflation CONCERNS.

Since Late September, Chinese Authorities Have Called For Halting The Real Estate Decline, Cut Interest Rates and announced a Five-Year Fiscal Package Worth 10 Trillion Yuan ($ 1.4 trillion) to ease local governments’ Financing Crisis. Beijing has also expanded a program for consumers to trade-in used cars and home appliances, and buy new ons at a discount.

“They are betting on a Substantial Infusion of Policy Stimulus and Reforms to Turbo Boost The Country’s Economy in 2025, Invigorating Domestic Demand and Warding Off Dishflationary Loom,” Said Bruce Pangle Ch fell at the National Institute for Finance and Development.

Top Leaders have pledged “proactive” fiscal measures and a “Moderately loose” Monetary policy stance for the current year. Some Analysts Expect Stimulus Might start to take effect this year, but it will take longer to see a significant impact.

The government is expected to revolt targets for 2025 and additional stimulus measures at the annual parliamentary meetings in March. Economists Expect Beijing to Keep Its GDP Growth Target for 2025 at Around 5%If not slightly lower.