Estimates of fluctuations in the stock market this week: Tariff, RBI rate cut to FII-DII flow; These factors will decide the market move

The stock market may see fluctuations this week. The market will be watching tariff development, FOMC mines, global economic data, RBI policy, domestic Economic data, corporate earnings, FII-DII flow and upcoming IPO.

Factors that will determine the market move in this week…

Tariff development

At the global level, all investors will be eyeing further activities related to tariffs. US President Donald Trump is adamant on tariff rates announced last week. They are defending tariffs, but are ready to negotiate. Trump said that Tariff has given him the power of negotiation. He used it as a tool in his previous administration and now took it to a new level in the second term and has disrupted the entire global trade system.

China has also imposed 34% tariff on American products. This led to negative impact on equity and commodities market on Friday. According to Reuters reports, countries like Japan, Mexico, South Korea and India want concessions from the US rather than retaliation. At the same time, Britain is working to make an economic agreement with the US.

US President Donald Trump announced a tariff on 60 countries of the world on 2 April. These new tariffs will be implemented from April 9.

In addition, Vietnam is ready to cut tariffs on American products. At the same time, Cambodia has asked the US government to postpone 49% tariff rate on its products. These two countries have the highest tariff rate. Vinod Nair said the 26% tariffs imposed on India are less than other Asian economy. Whatever positive development from the Indo-US-US BELELEREL trade negotiation can provide support to the market.

Fomc minutes

The market will also keep an eye on the minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting in March. Market participants will seek further rate cuts, economic growth and signal indications from data data. Last Friday, in his speech, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concern about inflation and economic growth, citing more tariff rates than expected.

Jerome Powell expects high inflation and low growth due to tariffs, which indicates that further rates will depend only on the clarity of the final impact of the tariff. In addition to FOMC minutes, weekly jobs will be focused on American inflation and PPI numbers for March. The economist hopes that inflation will decline further in March, which was 2.8% in February and 3% in January.

Jerome Powell, Chairman, Federal Reserve Bank.

Global Economic Data

In the coming weeks, Inflation, PPI, vehicle sales and balance of trade will also be monitored by China for the month of March.

Rbi policy

Investors focus will be on the results of the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to be held on 9 April. Economists hope that RBI can cut the repo rate by 25 basis points. Given the data of inflation below 4%, any rate deduction of more than 25 BPS will be more positive for markets. Apart from this, comments will also be monitored after Trump Tariff after growth, inflation and liquidity.

On April 9 at 10 am, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will give information about the decisions taken in the meeting.

Domestic Economic Data

The data of inflation and industrial production coming on 11 April will also be monitored. Because they are likely to get necessary information about the economic conditions of the country. Experts believe that inflation may increase in March, which was February 3.61%.

However, it is expected to be below 4%. Apart from this, investors will also keep an eye on the data for the bank loan and deposit growth for the last two weeks ended on March 28 on the same day.

Corporate earnings

The next week companies will release the results of their March 2025 quarter i.e. the fourth quarter (Q4FY25-March-March). Which will begin with the results of Tata Consultancy Services i.e. TCS on 10 April.

After the American tariff, the results of companies are expected to be good. Anand Rathi Wealth, Transformers and Rectifyers (India), BF Utilities and OK Play India will also release their quarterly results next week with TCS.

Fii-Dii Flow

The market will also be eyeing the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors i.e. FII. Last week, FII did a net selling of Rs 13,730 crore in the cash segment in Indian equity. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) made a net bye of Rs 5,633 crore during the same period.

The market perception was strengthened again after FII was a net buyer in the last few weeks, but since March 28, the market mood has deteriorated after their heavy net selling.

Initial Public Offering (IPO)

Next week, there will be no new initial public offering in the mainboard and SME segment. However, Rategio Industries will have the BSE SME list on 7 April. Whereas, the listing of Infonitive Solutions and Spinaru Commercial will be held on 8 April

Last week the Sensex fell 2,112 points

Last week, the Sensex dropped 2,112 points i.e. 2.73%. The Nifty also had a decline of 568 (2.42%) last week. At the same time, on the last trading day of the previous week i.e. April 4, the Sensex closed down 930 points (1.22%) to close at 75,364. At the same time, the Nifty declined by 345 points (1.49%), it closed at 22,904.