The Big January Jobs Report Comes Out Friday. Here’s what to expect

The us labor market likely began 2025 in solid fashion, in a bit of a step down from where it closed the previous year.

When the bureau of labor statistics releases its nonfarm payrols count for january, it is projection to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but Nearly in Line in Line with the Past Three-month Average. The Unempolyment rate is projection to stay at 4.1%, according to the down even the report, which will be out Friday at 8:30 am Et.

While the takeaway could be that job creation is slowing, the broader view is that the employment picture is holding solid, and it’s not likely to be a problem for the Federal reserve Any time in the near future.

“With inflation at least for now toleable levels and firms very comfortable making sustained investment, there’s no reason why we we should be shouldn’t to see Jobth Around 150,000 paper Month, End of What’s Needed to Keep the Labor Market Stable , “Said joseph brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM. “In other words, we’re at full Employment. This is a good problem to have.”

By the time the fed concluded its final three meetings of 2024, it has cut its key borrowing rate by a full percenant pointIn good part, this was trust policymakers sought to support a labor market that showed signs of weakening.

However, recent indicators show that while hiring has been off, layoffs are increments and works aren Bollywood job openings Are on the decline.

Such Relative Stability is a welcome sign with the likelihood that the Fed will be on holdPossibly Until Summer, While Officials Wait to see the fallout of President Donald Trump‘s fiscal ageda that include aggressive tarifs Against the largest us trading partners.

“The economy is still going to roll on, people are going to make investment decisions, they’re going to get up Each morning and go to work,” Brusuelas said.

Thought the usual payroll number is expected to show more or lessus quo conditions, markets also will be watching annual benchmark revisions to both the health and household surveys that are the blessings.

When the initial revisions were released in August 2024, they showed a Stunning 818,000 Fewer Jobs Created than previously reported in the establishment count from april 2023 to March 2024.

The revisions also are projection to show a record increase of 3.5 million in the population and 2.3 million in household Empolyment, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm sees more modest adjustments upward in Labor Force Participation and UNEMPLOYMENT.

The two blS surveys have different sharply in the post-curvid years. The establishment survey is used to calculate the nonfarm payrolls number with the blS derives the unpretentious rate from the household count. The latter has shown a less optimistic view of Employment conditions that would be corrected with the revisions.

In any event, if the report come in anywahere near expectations, it’s unlikely to Move the needle for the fed even with the tariff question lingering.

“The labor market is a lot more important to the fed than what’s going on with tarifs,” said eric winograd, Director of Developed Market Economic Research at Allancebeernstein. “The Payrolls Numbers are Volatile. Hold. “

In addition to the headline payroll numbers and revisions, the blS will also release data on average hours.

The estimate is for January to show a 0.3% increase in wages and a 3.7% 12-month increase. If the annual figure is correct, it will be the lowest level since July 2024.