A view of the turbines at orsted’s offshore wind farm near nys, Denmark, September 4, 2023.
Tom Little | Reuters
Presiding Donald Trump Promised to Unleash Us Energy Dominance, But His Sweeping Executive Order Targeting Wind Power Puts A Pipeline of Projects at Risk That Would Generate Electricity for Millions of Millions.
The Order Trump Issured on his first day in office Indefinitely Paiused New offshore wind leases In us coastal waters and halted new permites pending the completes of a review. The Order Jeopardizes Proposed Projects on the East Coast that Have Not Yet Secure Permits Totaling 32 Gigawats of Power, According to Data from the Consulting Firm Aurora Arorara Arorara Enerra Arorara Enerora.
“At the moment, it’s really hard to see how any of these projects will be als to move forward,” said artem abramov, head of new Energies Research at the Consultancy Rystad. Like Aurora, Rystad Estimates that Around 30 Gigawats of Projects on the US East Coast Are At Risk.
Theose projects, if realized, would provide enough combined power for more than 12 million homes in the us, according to CNBC Analysis of Data from the Energy Information Administration. The order is not expected to impact projects under construction Totaling about 5 gigawats, according to aurora.
Trump has Abandoned Commitments Made during the biden administration to fight climate change, withdrawing the us for a second time from the Paris Agreement. He has focused on boosting fossil fuel production, opening us coastal waters to oil and gas leasing on the same day he with he with he withdraw thats for wind.
Trump’s Order will jeopardize the efforts of states in the mid-athest and northeast to transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their Electric Grid, Abramov Said. New York, New Jersey and Virginia, For Example, Have AMBitious Clean Energy Goals Adopted at the State Level. But they are to far north to relay with battery for power, Abramov said.
“If you want to achieve the power generation in new york or new jersey or virginia is complete fossil free, if that’s the ultimate goal, there is not so many alternatives to of .
The order could Ultimately Force States to relay more on Carbon-Simitting Natural Gas, According to Rystad and Aurra. But it is virtually impossible for a state new york to meet its climate goals and ensure an adequate energy supply, particularly downstate in the new york City Metro Area, with IA HOOS, Who Heads Aurora’s US East Division.
Power projects waiting in line to connect to the electric grid in downstate new york through 2027 are almost entrely wind and transmission, hoos said.
“There is virtually no possibility to brings online new gas in the next 18 to 24 months, unless there’s a significant reform or there i”s some sort of fast trac to brings online Y Issues, “Hoos said.
But more natural gas generation will likely be Built Later in the Decade on the back of trump’s policies, HOOS Said. Investor SentimeRTificial Intelligence Data CentersAbramov said.
Immediati impact
Two weeks after Trump’s Order, New Jersey Decided Against Moving Forward for Now with the Atlantic Shores Project, Which Stood to believe the first offshore Wind Development In the State. The state utilities board cited “Uncertainty Driven by Federal Actions and Permiting” and European Oil Major Shell Pulling out of the project.
“The offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges, and now is the time for patience and prudence,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement backing the board’s decision.
Murphy, who has set a goal to achieve 100% Clean Energy in New Jersey by 2035, said he hoped “The trump administration will partner with new jersey to lower costs for consumors, and ATE Good-Paying Construction and Manufacturing Jobs . “
Offshore wind in the US “has come to a stop, more or less with immediative effect” in the wake of trump’s order, Vestas wind energy systems Ceo Henrik Andersen Told Investors on the Company’s Feb. 5 earnings call. Denmark’s vestas is one of the world’s leaders in manufacturing and servicing wind turbines.
Industry Headwinds
Trump’s Order Deepens the challenges of an industry that was alredy facing an uncertain outlook after Years Growth.
Wind has surgged as power source in the us over the past 25 years from 2.4 gigawats of installed generating capacity to 150 gigawats by april 2024, according to data from the Energy Information AdministrationGeneration from wind hit a record that month, Surpassing Coal-Fired Power. Wind currently represents about 11% of total us power generation.
But the industry has struggled against supply chain bottlenecks and high interest rates. Offshore wind was already the most expensive form of renewable energy, Abramov said. Developers in the us have decided a lot of cost custainy due to the challenges of building on water as opposed to land, hoos said.
“The industry was hoping that the cost would come down,” Abramov said. “We haven’t seen any projects in the united states which was alive to achieve lower lowzed cost of energy.”
The World’s Larget offshore wind development, denmark’s orsted, decided on Feb. 5 to ditch its goal To install up to 38 gigawats of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Billion), down from 270 Billion crowns previous.
Orsted’s Sunrise Wind and Revolution Wind Projects That Are Under Construction offer Y’S Company’s Feb. 6 earnings call. Future Developments, However, May Be at Risk.
“We are fully committed to moving them forward and deliver on our committee,” Errboe Said. “We do not expect that the Executive Order will have any implications on assets under construction, but of courses for assets under development, its potentily a deiflery
The Order also Should Not Impact Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, The Larget Such Project Under Construction in the US at 2.6 Gigawats of Power, Dominion CEO ROBERT BLUET BLUES eb. 12 Earning Call.
,Stopping it would be the most inflationary action that could be taken with respect in virginia, “Blue said. Uing us superiority in ai and technology. “
Looking for Clarity
The Wind Industry Lobby Group American Clean Power in A Jan. 20 statement described trump’s order as a blanket measure that will jeopardize domestic energy development and harm american businesses and works. The President’s Order Contradicts The Administration’s Goal to Reduce Bureaucracy and Unleash Energy Production, ACP CEO Jason Gromet Said in the statement.
The ACP is now Trying to get Clarity from the Trump Administration on how the executive Order will be implemented, Said Frank Macchiarola, the Group’s CHIF Advocacy Officer. It’s Unclear, for example, when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, Macchiarola said.
A spokesperson for the interior department simply said the department is implementing trump’s executive order when asked for comment on a detailed list of questions. When asked when the review of permit and lease practices will be complete, the speakesperson said any estimate would be hypothetical.
The Wind Industry is Committed to Working with the Trump Administration, Supports The President’s Push for Energy Dominance Agenda and is Making the Case That That Renwels has a keey rale Source of Electricity in the US, Macchiarla said.
“When past administrations have chowne to strike American energy development
Onshore wind permiting has also been allied peding the review, but the part of the industry is unlikely to face a substantial impact, rystad’s abramov said. Wind farms onshore are almost Entarely Built on Private Rather Than Federal Land, He Said. The market is also already saturated and adding capacity is larger dependent on building out more energy storage first, the analyst said.
Offshore wind, however, is a much less mature market in the US and was viewed as Major Growth Opportunity for the Industry, Abramov said. But that appears to changing rapidly.
“They do’t see the us as a market for Continuous offshore wind expansion as long as this order in place,” The analyst said.
– CNBC’s Gabriel Cortes Contributed to this Report.
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