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The labor market may be poised for dislocation with president-election-election-open trump set to take office for the second time late this month.
For the past two years, health care has dominated all other Industries in terms of growth, aid partly by covid-Related Spending. The Health Care and Social Assistant Sector Added 902,000 Jobs in 2024, According to Friday’s Employment Report From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, almost as many as the 966,000 jobs they created in 2023.
The Government Sector Came in a distant second, Creating Some 440,000 Jobs in 2024, Down from 709,000 in 2023.
Part of the growth in health care jobs is also tied to Rising Population and a Burgeoning Number of Retirs, Said Elise Gold, Senior Economist At the Economic Policy Institute.
“Healthcare and Social Insurance has been rising gangbusters for years,” Gold Told CNBC in a Friday Interview. “Some of that is an aging population, some of it is just population growth.”
Looming change
But that count change in a second trump administration, especially if it brings mass departations And a renewed debate over foreign labor visas. Immigrants Accounted for Nearly 18% of Health Care Workers in 2021, according to the migration policy institute.
“There’s alredy such high demand there and if we have mass departations, that’s certainly going to come at a cost for The services that can be provided In that sector, “GOLD SAID. cause Problems in the macroeconomy. “
The government sector has been the second-fastest growing sector the past two years. Much of that growth has been happy at the state level, Gold Said. The state-level government workforce grew at a faster pace thankal last year, while the federal government employee base
But, as with Health Care, The Government Sector Could See Workforce Reductions Under President-Elect Trump’s New Deepartment of Government Efficiency, A Strikes WAMY That AIMS to Slash Government Speaking.
“If you get rid of that kind of a policy at the federal level, you’re going to lose lots of highly productive works, and so that could be a detrient to the services that they provide and obvious to the Overall Economy,” G. Said. “Unempolyment can go up … so many things can hangs if you damage that vital federal workforce, and if there’s less funding at the same local Level that can be problems as well.”
Manufacturing growth – maybe
Convercely, A Trump Administration May Prove Positive for Sector Such as Manufacturing and Mining and Logging, The Two Groups that was the Weakest Job Creation in 2024. Industries, But Gold Said It’s Impossible to Predict by How Much .
With Concerns Around Sticky Inflation Looming INTO The Focus on the Labor Economy Moving Forward Should Be the Share of Corporate Sector Income Incoming That goes to Workers Profits SHID Still “Very, very low.”
“When works have money in their pockets and they spend it on goods and services, that drives the production of goods and the provision of services,” She said. “Even though we’ve seen productivity growth and we’ve had inflation come down, there is just a lot more Room for wages to rise without putting upward pressure on Inflation.”
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